It’s Monday. ‘Twas the night before Election Day, and the nerves are really starting to catch up to me. And, based on all of the recent reader emails I’ve been getting, it sounds like you’re all feeling it, too. Here’s what’s happening today:

• Why is a single Iowa poll getting so much attention?
• Trump is spending his last campaign day in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Harris is prioritizing Pennsylvania.
• Harris made a surprise appearance on “Saturday Night Live” this weekend.
• Pollster Nate Silver says “herding” can affect polling.
• How long will it take to know the election results?
• The euthanasia of a social media star squirrel has angered the right.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey shocked the election world over the weekend with a new poll showing Vice President Harris carrying a 3-point lead over former President Trump in Iowa.

It’s Iowa, a solidly red state that is not considered a battleground. This is just one poll and may be an outlier. In theory, it shouldn’t matter so much, but it does. There are two reasons:

No. 1 — It’s the pollster: Pollster Ann Selzer has an incredibly accurate record of predicting the outcome of the state’s presidential election results. And these predictions often do not mirror other polls. Veteran pollster Nate Silver writes that she “has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right,” describing her “near-oracular status.”

No. 2 — It could be an early warning sign for Republicans: Trump easily won Iowa both in 2016 and 2020 by 9 points and 8 points, respectively. If a deep red state like Iowa has Harris leading by 3 points, it may be a worrying sign for Republicans.

Trump has tried to discredit the poll: “No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday. “All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT.”

📊 The full poll

Silver pointed out that, while the race does appear to be razor thin, be very skeptical of polling based on how similar they are.

“We ran the numbers. Even if all 7 swing states are actually tied, there’s only a ~1 in 9.5 trillion chance~ that so many polls would show such a close race,” Silver posted on X. Silver argues that pollsters “are terrified of going out on a limb.”

Silver thinks “herding” is happening: Herding is “the tendency of some polling firms to move with the flock by file-drawering (not publishing) results that don’t match the consensus or torturing their turnout models until they do.”

Read Silver’s analysis: ‘There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands’

Harris and Trump are completely tied, according to the polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ.

Still, the latest model forecasts a 54 percent chance that Trump wins.

Harris made a surprise appearance on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” (SNL).
📹 Watch Harris’s SNL appearance

The Trump campaign criticized Harris, saying she was “cosplaying with her elitist friends.” Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Commissioner Brendan Carr accused NBC of a “blatant” effort to evade the FCC’s “equal time” rule.

Well, NBC then aired a short video message from Trump on Sunday evening to even out the candidates’ airtime.

It will depend on how quickly each state counts its ballots and how close the race is. In 2020, it took until the Saturday after Election Day for the race to be called, but there were a high number of mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The first big batch of polls will close at 7 p.m. Eastern — some polling stations close earlier in a few regions, but the first batch is at 7 p.m.

Assuming there are no surprises (aside from the battlegrounds): Here are the poll closing times that could tell us the presidential outcome tomorrow night:

Georgia: Polls close at 7 p.m.

North Carolina: Polls close at 7:30 p.m.

Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8 p.m.

Michigan: Most close at 8 p.m., but some close at 9 p.m.

Arizona: Polls close at 9 p.m.

Wisconsin: Polls close at 9 p.m.

Nevada: Polls close at 10 p.m.

         (All times Eastern)

This is a helpful list of poll closing times by state, via FiveThirtyEight.

If you’re following House races: The Hill’s Mike Lillis, Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell put together a list of key races to keep an eye on tomorrow. Read: ‘These races will give early clues about who will win the House’

The Hill and Decision Desk HQ will be tracking each race on election night. I suggest you bookmark our election hub.

Tidbit: Here’s how NBC’s Steve Kornacki is preparing for election night coverage.  Watch the clip

• ‘Inside the Ruthless, Restless Final Days of Trump’s Campaign’: From The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta
• ‘In Pennsylvania, Republicans Stress Optimism While Democrats Just Stress’: The New York Times
• ‘GOP primed to back Trump if he contests election’: The Hill
  ‘Four years after ‘Stop the Steal,’ an organized army emerges online’: The Washington Post
• ‘Harris and Trump Rush to Overcome Vulnerabilities in Final Day Before Election’: The Wall Street Journal
• ‘Trump Isn’t Perfect, but He’s the Better Choice’: Op-ed from Nikki Haley in The Wall Street Journal
• ‘Trump says he “shouldn’t have left” the White House in 2021’: The Hill

🍭 Celebrate: Today is National Candy Day!

🗣️ Pete Buttigieg is totally in his element: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg debated 25 undecided voters for Jubilee’s YouTube channel. 📹 Watch

👽 This is an outstanding Halloween costume: Model Heidi Klum dressed as E.T., the extraterrestrial from Steven Spielberg’s eponymous 1982 film. It reportedly took her seven hours to get into this costume. 📸 Find her face

Related from The New York Times: ‘Inside Heidi Klum’s Halloween Party’

🐿️ RIP, Peanut: Well, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation confiscated Peanut the social media star squirrel and euthanized him. It’s started an uproar on the internet, with Republicans using the incident as an example of government overreach. The Wall Street Journal even ran an editorial. Here’s an explainer

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Washington, and Vice President Harris is in Pennsylvania. (all times Eastern)

• 12:15 p.m.: Biden returns to the White House from Delaware.
• 12:30 p.m.: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) campaigns in La Crosse, Wis. 💻 Livestream
• 1:15 p.m.: Biden receives his daily briefing.
• 1:15 p.m.: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) campaigns in Flint, Mich. 💻 Livestream
• 2 p.m.: Former President Trump campaigns in Reading, Pa. 💻 Livestream
• 3:15 p.m.: Biden calls service members to thank them for recent counterterrorism operations against ISIS.
• 3:45 p.m.: Walz campaigns in Stevens Point, Wis. 💻 Livestream
• 4:10 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Allentown, Pa. 💻 Livestream
• 5 p.m.: Vance campaigns in Atlanta. 💻 Livestream
• 6 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Pittsburgh. 💻 Livestream
• 7 p.m.: Walz campaigns in Milwaukee. 💻 Livestream
• 8:30 p.m.: Vance campaigns in Newtown, Pa. 💻 Livestream
• 8:35 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Pittsburgh. 💻 Livestream
• 10:30 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Grand Rapids, Mich. 💻 Livestream
• 10:30 p.m.: Walz campaigns in Detroit. 💻 Livestream
• 11:05 p.m.: Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff campaign in Philadelphia. 💻 Livestream
• 12:55 a.m. Tuesday: Harris and Emhoff return to Washington.

Because we could all use a moment of levity, watch this dog’s unique style of walking downstairs.

Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.

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