September home sales drop to the lowest level since 2010

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1% in September compared with August, to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.84 million units, the slowest pace since October 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Sales were 3.5% lower than in September 2023. Sales fell in three out of four U.S. regions, with just the West region seeing a gain.

This count is based on closings, representing contracts signed likely in July and August. Mortgage rates started July close to 7% on the 30-year fixed and then fell slowly through August to just below 6.5%. Rates are now more than a full percentage point lower than they were a year ago.

Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a four-million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Inventory rose 1.5% month to month to 1.39 million homes for sale at the end of September. That represents a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace. Inventory was 23% higher from September 2023.

“More inventory is certainly good news for home buyers as it gives consumers more properties to view before making a decision,” Yun said. “However, the inventory of distressed properties is minimal because the mortgage delinquency rate remains very low. Distressed property sales accounted for only 2% of all transactions in September.

The pressure of still low inventory continues to push prices higher. The median price of an existing home sold in September was $404,500, an increase of 3% year-over-year and the 15^th consecutive month of annual price gains.

Cash continues to be king in this market, making up 30% of September sales. Pre-Covid, cash buyers made up about 20% of sales. Yun noted that it is not just investors using cash, as investors actually pulled back slightly in September to just 16% of sales, down from 19% in August.

Homes are sitting longer, an average of 28 days compared with just 21 days a year ago. First-time buyers pulled back again, making up just 26% of September sales. That matches the all-time low from August.