The Hill's 12:30 Report — Shutdown threat intensifies

Happy Monday! To use the most popular quote coming out of the weekend, “Karma is the guy on the Chiefs, coming straight home to me.” Here’s what’s happening in politics today:

• Government funding expires in four days. Congressional leaders don’t seem close to a funding deal, so here we go again…
• If the government does shut down, it could make Thanksgiving air travel a nightmare.
• The Vegas Golden Knights are at the White House today to celebrate their 2023 Stanley Cup victory.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

Government funding runs out in *checks calendar* four days, setting up Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) first big test in corralling lawmakers to keeping the government’s lights on.

Johnson’s unconventional approach: We have become very familiar with how government funding deadlines go. Congressional leaders and appropriators throw out suggestions and priorities, and the deadline creeps closer with major hurdles and disagreements. Eventually, the deadline is so close that negotiators either pass a massive bill to keep the government open — or otherwise shut down the government.

Well, Johnson wants to try another strategy to avoid the usual dance: Instead of that one deadline, he introduced a plan to split up parts of government funding into two, smaller deadlines — a “laddered” approach. Some federal programs would run out of funding on Jan. 19 and others on Feb. 2.

Is there support for Johnson’s plan?: It’s very unclear whether the tiered plan could pass the House. Top Democrats oppose the plan, and it is already causing disagreements among Republicans. Johnson can only afford a few defections among House Republicans. And in the Senate, some GOP lawmakers would prefer not to drag the fight into next year.

Why some hardline conservatives oppose this plan: They want more spending cuts.

Why Democrats are opposed to this plan: It doesn’t include aid for Israel or Ukraine.

⬆️ The politics of Johnson’s plan in the Senate, via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton

⬇️ The politics of Johnson’s plan in the House, via The Hill’s Mychael Schnell

💡 New York Magazine explainer on Johnson’s unusual funding idea

An estimated 4.7 million people are expected to fly next week for Thanksgiving, and if the federal government shuts down, it could have major effects on air travel.

How so?: Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees and federal air traffic controllers will be forced to work without pay. “The TSA workers are among the lowest paid in the government … and during the last shutdown, in 2019, large numbers called in sick weeks into the shutdown, when they’d miss pay.”

The Hill’s Taylor Giorno explains how a shutdown could impact Thanksgiving travel.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told CNN’s Manu Raju that he hasn’t spoken with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) since he was booted as Speaker.

^ That’s an X post from HuffPost’s Igor Bobic that wins the day.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) suspended his bid for president on Sunday.

Is this a surprise?: Not really. Scott did qualify for the most-recent GOP presidential debate but was caught in the crowded field that has been overshadowed by former President Trump.

The Hill’s Caroline Vakil summed up Scott’s campaign well: “Over the summer, Scott showed some signs of momentum in early state polling … But [he] was unable to capitalize on that momentum during the Republican presidential debates … And though Scott enjoyed a campaign war chest of $22 million when he entered the race — money he accumulated while fundraising as a senator — his campaign also grappled with a high cash burn rate.” (The Hill)

“Former President Trump’s attorney Alina Habba said Sunday that she will be filing for a mistrial in the former president’s fraud cause in New York ‘soon,’ while raising concerns that it will be the same trial judge deciding on the motion.”

Back story: “Trump has repeatedly expressed concerns on both social media and in court about the judge presiding over the case, along with the judge’s principal clerk, claiming they are biased and motivated by politics. Judge Arthur Engoron issued a gag order last month barring Trump and other parties in the case from posting or speaking publicly about members of his staff. Last month, Engoron fined Trump $10,000 for violating the gag order.” (The Hill)

First in The Hill: “White House and Biden campaign aides on Monday slammed former 
President Trump over his comments from the weekend in which he compared his political enemies to ‘vermin’ who pose a threat to the United States,” reports The Hill’s Brett Samuels. 
Read the full statement

A new book from ABC News’s Jonathan Karl reports that former President Trump believed a fringe conspiracy that he could be reinstated as president in August 2021. The conspiracy theory is tied to QAnon. Details

The Associated Press’s Michael Balsamo reports that “Secret Service agents protecting President Joe Biden’s granddaughter [Naomi Biden] opened fire after three people tried to break into an unmarked Secret Service vehicle in the nation’s capital, a law enforcement official told The Associated Press.”

Was anyone hurt?: No one was injured in the gunfire, according to the Secret Service.

Has anyone been arrested?: Three people fled and police are on the lookout. (The Associated Press) 

“Hospitals and medical facilities have become caught up in intense fighting as Israel presses its offensive against Hamas in Gaza City.”

Specifically: “The focus of attention has been on Al-Shifa, Gaza’s largest hospital, where an estimated 2,300 people remain trapped by battles in the surrounding streets. Other facilities are reporting similar situations — a lack of supplies and power, and an ever-present threat to life due to fighting.” (BBC)

• ‘Hamas envisioned deeper attacks, aiming to provoke an Israeli war’: The Washington Post
• ‘Gaza’s 2 largest hospitals have ceased to function, health officials say’: NPR
• ‘Israeli Forces Near a Struggling Hospital They Say Covers a Hamas Complex’: The New York Times
• ‘Israel Warns of Wider War as It Presses On in Gaza’: The Wall Street Journal
• ‘How to think through allegations of genocide in Gaza’: Vox
• ‘Rumbling Middle East fault lines make this Israel-Gaza war different’: BBC

🥣 Celebrate: Today is National Indian Pudding Day.

🪩 On the BeyHive and Swiftie beats: USA Today hired a reporter to specifically cover Beyoncé and another to cover Taylor Swift. Who?: Journalists Caché McClay and Bryan West respectively. 

🍚 Tell me more: The New York Times’s Alice Callahan writes how letting cooked rice and pasta refrigerate overnight transforms the starches into healthier versions. (The New York Times)

📸 Well, well, well, look who it is: Actor Adam Sandler was seen around Washington, D.C. — including Georgetown — before his Thursday night show at Capital One Arena. Photos and video, from Fox 5 DC

The House and Senate are in. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C. (all times Eastern)

• 11:30 a.m.: The Vegas Golden Knights are at the White House celebrating their 2023 Stanley Cup win. 💻 Video
• 12:30 p.m.: State Department spokesperson Matt Miller briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream
• 2 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and national security adviser Jake Sullivan brief reporters. 💻 Livestream
• 4 p.m.: Biden hosts a bilateral meeting with Indonesia President Joko Widodo in the Oval Office.
• 5:30 p.m.: Two Senate votes. 🗓️ Today’s agenda
• 6:30 p.m.: First and last House votes. 🗓️ Today’s agenda