Trump tops Biden by just two points in new Florida poll

Donald Trump Joe Biden

Former President Trump in a new poll is leading President Biden by just two points in his home state of Florida, which is a longtime swing state but has been seen as relatively safe territory for Republicans in recent elections.

The poll from the University of North Florida (UNF), published Thursday, found 47 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Trump, while 45 percent said they will vote for Biden. About 4 percent said another candidate, 2 percent said they do not plan on voting, and 3 percent said they do not know, or refused to answer.

The findings suggest it could be a “very close race” in the Sunshine State this November, Michael Binder, the faculty director of the Public Opinion Research lab at UNF, noted in a statement.

Trump won Florida by a similar margin in 2020, clinching more than 51 percent of the state’s vote, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.

This was a slightly higher margin than in 2016, when Trump had about 49 percent of the vote, while former Secretary of State and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had 47 percent.

Florida is a big state in the presidential election with 30 electoral votes. Decision Desk HQ is currently predicting Trump will win Florida in November.

While Biden appears to be gaining ground on the former president in the Sunshine State, he has also lost the support of some voters who previously picked him in 2020.

Six percent of respondents who voted for Biden in 2020 said they will instead vote for Trump in 2024, while 4 percent said they will choose a different candidate, pollsters found. Only 2 percent of 2020 Trump voters said they will be switching to Biden this November and another 2 percent said they will vote for someone else.

The findings come weeks after the Biden reelection campaign announced it is aiming to flip Florida. In a memo released earlier this month, campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said investment in Florida is part of Biden’s pathway to 270 electoral votes.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.

Biden stopped in Florida on Tuesday to give remarks on reproductive rights, in his first visit to the state since its state Supreme Court cleared the way for a policy effectively banning most abortions beginning May 1.

“You wouldn’t know it from what you read and hear, but, you know, we’re in pretty good shape in the polls,” Biden remarked on Tuesday.

This decision, in addition to a series of other controversial policies adopted in the state have fueled Democratic hopes that they could prompt an upset in the state this November.

Thursday’s poll follows a series of other recent findings polls showing Biden starting to pull ahead in a handful of other states or national polls released this month.

A New York Times/Siena College poll published April 13 found Biden trailing Trump by 1 percentage point nationally, an improvement from a February poll that showed Trump leading by 5 percentage points.

An NBC News national poll published this week showed Biden trimmed Trump’s lead from 5 percentage points in January to 2 percentage points this month.

The UNF poll was conducted among 745 likely votes on April 8 through 20, 2024. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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