The Big Story 

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) will face challenger former Rep. Collin Allred (D) tonight in their only debate before Election Day and as they are locked in a tight race that could have a major impact on control of the Senate next year. 

© AP

The debate pits Allred, a three-term congressman, civil rights attorney and former NFL player, against Cruz in their only face-to-face match-up of the election. 

The debate will take place in Dallas at 8 p.m. ET, and it will be streamed online. 

 
For months, Allred and Cruz have been in a feisty and expensive fight, with each hoping to define the race on their own terms. The two campaigns and affiliated entities have spent more than $100 million on the race, making it one of the most expensive Senate campaigns this cycle. 

Cruz has a 2.8 percent lead over Allred in the polls averaging 48.1 percent to Allred’s 45.3 percent. It’s a notable deviation from the top of the Texas ticket, where former President Trump is polling 51 percent to Vice President Harris’s 45.5 percent. 

Cruz has been a household name since his unsuccessful presidential bid in 2016, but Allred, former NFL player and civil rights lawyer, has focused on trying to build name recognition — the debate giving him a major audience. 

Normally, a reliably Republican state, Democrats have invested in trying to flip the Texas seat, viewing it as a rare opportunity to pick up an extra seat during an election cycle where they could lose seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. 

Allred ousted a Republican in a conservative district six years ago. During that same election cycle, Cruz narrowly fended off a Senate challenge from former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D).  

Abortion, border security and transgender rights — all likely to come up in the Senate debate — have been central to their campaigns and themes of their ads. 

Cruz has hammered Allred over his vote against a House GOP bill that would bar transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports at schools that receive federal funding. The bill didn’t get a vote in the Senate, after it passed the House on a party-line vote. 

Allred has pointed out that Cruz didn’t support a bipartisan border bill earlier this year, and he has focused efforts on highlighting Cruz’s track record as one of the most conservative senators. Allred also has gone after Cruz over his infamous trip to Cancun, Mexico, when the state experienced a major winter storm in 2021. 

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, I’m Liz Crisp. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington. 

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On Our Watch 

Almost 9 in 10 (89 percent) of voters in competitive legislative districts in four battleground states — Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — said they are “very motivated” to cast ballots in state and local elections, according to a new poll from Forward Majority and Benenson Strategy Group shared with The Hill.

The survey found that 75 percent of voters said that in the last few years, their general assemblies and statehouses have had “a greater impact” on their families. Despite this, less than 1 in 6, 15 percent, said they knew a “great deal” about candidates running for those seats.

Vice President Harris’s performance in legislative districts in the four swing states is mixed. The Democratic nominee surpassed state legislative Democratic contenders in Arizona by 3 points, and Wisconsin by 4 points, but was running behind in Michigan by 1 point, and Pennsylvania by 5 points, according to the poll.

The majority of voters, 75 percent, in swing states said their statehouse and general assembly have a more positive influence on the community than Congress.

The poll was conducted Sept. 24-29 among 1,331 likely voters in battleground districts. The margin of error was 2.6 percentage points.

— Filip Timotija

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