(NEXSTAR) – With tariffs on some imports in place – and the threat of more looming on the horizon – consumers are worried the cost of everything from groceries to cars to clothing is about to skyrocket. Thankfully, that may not be the case for gas.
The price at the pump has climbed this month, leaving spring break road trippers and daily commuters paying a national average of around $3.17 a gallon, according to AAA.
In a normal year, we would expect cheaper prices from here on out. Over the past 10 years, gas prices have typically peaked for the year around April 10, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
While demand for gas is higher in the summer as more people hit the road, prices usually top out in spring, he explained.
“First of all, refineries are doing maintenance. During maintenance, they’re obviously taking part of their units offline to do upgrades, to maintain them, to do inspections. The refineries essentially aren’t churning out as much gasoline in the spring as this maintenance is ongoing,” De Haan said.
At the same time, refineries are making the switch from winter blend gasoline to summer blend, which is more complex and expensive to produce.
Demand for gas also starts to climb as travelers hit the road for spring break. “So all three of those things usually push prices up, and the date of that maximum pressure is typically in April,” said De Haan.
By May, refineries wrap up maintenance and the switch to summer blend is made, so prices historically tend to come down.
But all that only holds true in a normal year. There are several unexpected factors that can throw us off trend, De Haan said. Natural disasters like hurricanes can affect refinery operations, causing an unpredictable surge of prices.
Then there’s the tariff situation. The Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping tariffs earlier this month sent oil prices plummeting in anticipation of a slowing economy and possible recession. When the president announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, those prices recovered a bit, but remain pretty low.
“If the tariff situation were to suddenly be no longer a factor, let’s say the administration navigates agreements with many of these countries, there could be a potential down the road that as the tariff situation eases, there’s less worry of a recession, Americans feel better about the economy, and they could be traveling more,” De Haan said. That would cause prices at the pump to rise a bit from where they are now.
The national average gas price isn’t too shocking at the moment, especially when you consider where we’ve been in recent years. In 2022, as global economies came out of the pandemic and the Russian-Ukraine war disrupted supply, gas prices reached a national average above $5 per gallon.